Shortly following Belarus demonstrated a pursuit in the power sector associated with Azerbaijan, europe (EUROPEAN UNION) as well as Azerbaijan authorized an Motion Plan inside the Neighborhood Policy along with a Memorandum aimed towards additional deepening the power partnership. The Memorandum associated with Understanding about the Energy Co-operation authorized between Azerbaijan as well as EU identifies 4 concern directions:
1. To progressively harmonize the actual Azerbaijani power legislation using the EU laws to adapt the electrical and gasoline markets;
two. To boost the security of one’s supply as well as transit techniques directed through Azerbaijan as well as Caspian basin towards the EU.
3. To build up the plan of controlling complex power demands;
four. Technical co-operation as well as exchange associated with specialists.
The growing EU curiosity towards Azerbaijan is actually supported by both significance from the gas and oil reserves and also the geo-strategic placement of Azerbaijan.
The developing energy dependence from the EU upon various exterior sources imposes unique risks. Within 2005, 56, 2% from the internal power consumption within the EU, that has exceeded 1, 6 mln a lot of the essential oil equivalent, was covered in the expense from the external resources, and this particular fact indicates the power dependence coefficient. This particular figure experienced equaled 54% within 2004. Other than Denmark, the power import excels the power export in most EU nations and you will find no changes within the gross power consumption because comprised towards the previous 12 months. In add-on, a loss of 4, 2% may be observed over a myriad of the power production. Generally in the event that fundamental changes don’t take location, the EUROPEAN UNION energy reliance is planned to achieve 70% through 2030.
On the subject of the sources which the EUROPEAN UNION depends, they’re as subsequent:
– OPEC (particularly Near Far eastern countries as well as Algeria)
Approximately 45% from the EU essential oil import is actually achieved in the expense associated with OPEC. The concern that OPEC provides reaction in order to any drop tendency within the oil prices on the planet market through immediately lowering the manufacturing by continuing from its interests as well as outside pressures isn’t an beneficial approach for that EU. Consequently, in addition towards the issues associated with reserves and provide, the essential oil prices will also be among the key topics from the discussions within the negotiations which EU offers intensified along with OPEC because 9 06 2005. Even at the moment, an agreement have been reached upon selling the actual oil towards the EU within the interval associated with $35-55. The existence from the stability as well as security difficulties in most of the Near Far eastern OPEC member-countries which are rich within the hydrocarbon resources is recognized as in EUROPEAN UNION as high-risk factor.
Russia tries to consider under the actual control primarily the gasoline market from the EU. 40% from the EU gasoline import is actually reported in the expense associated with Russia. The primary fact leading to anxiety within the EU in relation to Russia is how the economical expansion of the country is definitely guided through the geopolitical suggestions and politics interests. Simultaneously, the monopolist placement of Gazprom managing nearly 70% from the Russian gasoline production testifies the actual continuation from the manipulation using the prices. Within its change, the EUROPEAN UNION calls upon Russia in order to accelerate the interior reforms as well as supports this with numerous exclusions within the negotiations using the World Industry Organization.
Norway handles 25% from the EU gasoline import as well as presently may be the 3rd greatest gas exporter from the world. The priorities within the EU power negotiations along with Norway are using the supplies in Arctic area and changeover to reviving energy resources. The primary risk concerning Norway is how the gas and oil in this particular country tend to be produced with high rates and in this manner, the assets may complete sooner.
Because seen, the EU’s reliance on several power centers as well as their having the dangerous aspects force the EUROPEAN UNION to reinforce the relations using the alternatives. In this instance, the eye are aimed towards Caspian container, especially Azerbaijan as well as Kazakhstan. Usually the importance associated with Azerbaijan within the EU power policy is actually linked greatly with Kazakhstan (Center Asia) element. Because in the first look at, the gas and oil reserves associated with Azerbaijan aren’t seen greatly before the actual annual demand from the EU. The demonstrated oil supplies of Azerbaijan have been described from 1 bln lots and gasoline reserves from 1. thirty seven trln cu. m within the BP’s record summary around the globe energy “Energy within Figures” released in 06 2006. And also the annual essential oil production associated with Azerbaijan (twenty two, 4 mln lots in 2005) equates to 1, 4% from the EU major domestic essential oil consumption. Nevertheless, if we consider the subsequent reasons, above-mentioned factors don’t decrease the significance of Azerbaijan within the EU power sphere:
1. The actual resource reserves of every country are often more compared to disclosed or even calculated numbers. Because the actual expert predictions for this kind of issues have a minimized path. With additional words, regardless of the worldwide reliability from the above-mentioned supply, the probability is extremely high how the gas and oil reserves associated with Azerbaijan are a lot more than the actual disclosed numbers.
2. “Coefficient associated with providing supplies (R/P)” associated with Azerbaijan is actually high (forty two. 4 with regard to oil supplies; higher compared to 100 with regard to gas supplies).
3. The EUROPEAN UNION assesses the choice role associated with Azerbaijan within exporting the actual hydrocarbon assets of Kazakhstan, a nation possessing 5% from the gas and oil reserves from the world.
four. In the situation that the actual EU views the diversification from the sources among the key concepts in it’s energy plan and tries to diminish the reliance on several big sources, the diversification is going to be ensured in the expense associated with exactly Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan as well as smaller countries for example New Guinean Beach countries. Nonetheless, it is actually impossible in order to assess this as EU’s neglecting the titanic ship hydrocarbon supplies of Spain. Simply these types of steps happen to be directed in the direction of ensuring the actual permanency from the supply as well as common effectiveness.
The EUROPEAN UNION energy transfer from Azerbaijan within 2005 has composed $2, eighty six bln, towards $1, fifty eight bln within 2003. The EU may be the biggest industry partner associated with Azerbaijan as well as 93% associated with Azerbaijan’s power export is actually directed towards the EU. Presently the power relations between your EU as well as Azerbaijan are in high degree. However, the EUROPEAN UNION was pressured to indication the above-mentioned Memorandum because of the issue which Azerbaijan offers entered to the growth phase within the gas and oil production, is from the risks from the long-term relations and it is transit significance has elevated. It is sufficient to once more see the very first priority from the Memorandum. It requires to include the followings right here:
– The concern that manat (nationwide currency device) offers raised within parallel using the increase from the oil income, the inflation rate isn’t stable and also the artificial monopolization imposes risks for macro-economical balance;
– The issue how the country encounters serious accusations because of the violation from the human privileges and protections and existence from the corruption;
– The concern that 20% from the country place is away from legal control and also the conflict can become active from any occasions;
From the perspective of it’s geo-strategic significance, the concern that Azerbaijan changes from gas and oil producer right into a transit country will keep Azerbaijan’s actuality for that EU (not just EU) within the next decade once the production may gradually decrease and also the resources will start to exhaust within country, and in those days, Azerbaijan could possibly get into the current situation associated with Georgia. But in our stage, the EUROPEAN UNION intends in order to normalize the actual conceptual bases from the long-term complicated co-operation along with Azerbaijan, such as the energy co-operation, and maximally make use of the country to improve the effectiveness of it’s energy plan.